Scenario Planning

---

We model base, downside, and black swan scenarios across occupancy rates, RevPAR, footfall, COGS volatility, and wage inflation. This identifies capital shortfall thresholds, debt covenant vulnerabilities, and break-even shifts across flagship and satellite locations.

We evaluate individual unit performance using contribution margin, payback period, and adjusted EBITDA per square foot. Underperforming sites are flagged for lease renegotiation, conversion, or closure. Capital is reweighted toward outperformers with resilient demand indicators.

We build detailed ROI models for renovations, brand refreshes, new concepts, or market entries. Inputs include forecasted ADR lift, table turnover improvement, digital channel penetration, and average ticket growth, aligned to IRR thresholds and strategic fit.

We identify white space for adjacent revenue streams—banqueting, coworking, meal plans, ghost kitchens, branded merchandise, and wellness add-ons. Each initiative is validated via TAM/SAM sizing, competitive mapping, and capital-light MVP design.

We simulate dynamic pricing models across room types, meal categories, or bundled offerings. Price elasticity testing is layered with competitor benchmarking and channel mix analysis (direct vs aggregator vs B2B). Output includes optimal price corridors and yield maximization levers.

We develop org charts for lean, growth, and divestment scenarios—quantifying headcount cost impact, redundancy risk, and leadership bandwidth. Role duplication, managerial span, and shared service feasibility are assessed for future-state readiness.

We evaluate growth pathways including JVs with local operators, franchise expansion, or bolt-on acquisitions. Includes strategic control considerations, brand dilution risk, partner alignment metrics, and exit clause modelling under different deal formats.

We define the investment case for POS, PMS, ERP, CRM, and customer-facing tech platforms. Payback is modeled via labor savings, marketing attribution accuracy, and booking engine efficiency. Vendor RFPs and change management roadmaps are included.

We outline phased exit paths—minority stake sale, IPO-readiness, or strategic full acquisition. For each, we map value-creation levers (standardization, recurring revenue, ESG visibility) and buyer personas (PE, conglomerate, REIT) to maximize valuation arbitrage.