Valuation Modeling

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We construct three-statement DCF models incorporating explicit forecast periods, terminal value methodologies (Gordon growth and exit multiple), WACC calibration, and tax amortization shields—providing acquirers with intrinsic value views grounded in capital structure and risk-adjusted return expectations.

We analyze comparable M&A transactions across the hospitality vertical—segmenting by geography, format (QSR, casual, fine dining), and investor type. Valuation multiples are adjusted for control premiums, synergies, and leverage to provide relevant real-world benchmarks for price discovery.

We evaluate public peer sets using EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue, and PEG ratios—normalized for IFRS 16 lease adjustments, IFRS vs GAAP differentials, and market cap volatility. Our comps set anchors valuation within public market expectations and investor sentiment.

We test valuation resilience across bull, base, and bear cases—varying revenue CAGR, gross margin compression, SG&A scaling, and capex reinvestment. Sensitivities to interest rates, input cost inflation, and FX exposure are quantified to support negotiation and board readiness.

We model the post-deal distribution of proceeds across common, preferred, SAFEs, and convertible instruments—accounting for liquidation preferences, participation rights, anti-dilution, and option pools. This helps founders understand exit outcomes and guides shareholder negotiations.

We simulate PPA impacts under IFRS/GAAP, identifying fair value adjustments to intangibles, goodwill, and deferred tax liabilities. This supports buyer-side post-deal integration planning and helps sellers preempt accounting treatment debates during diligence.

We assess existing and pro forma capital structures, analyzing debt covenants, interest coverage, and fixed charge ratios. This frames buyer appetite for debt-financed acquisitions and supports structuring of earnouts, holdbacks, or seller notes.

We construct synergy cases around COGS rationalization, G&A efficiencies, and network leverage. Synergies are valued using acquirer cost baselines and integration assumptions—critical for strategic buyers’ investment memos and for justifying valuation uplifts.

We apply real options theory and Monte Carlo simulations to price contingent payouts such as earnouts or ratchets. This enhances structuring flexibility in volatile markets and aligns founder incentives with post-close performance.